Matthew Fleharty Posted September 2, 2016 Report Share Posted September 2, 2016 On my way into work this morning, NPR aired a segment on making better predictions (http://www.npr.org/2016/09/01/492203116/want-to-make-better-predictions-researchers-explore-where-we-go-wrong). The research (http://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/1074/) was focused on predicting sporting events and in cases where more details were given or required to be assessed, individuals made (some) worse predictions. Disclaimer: I haven't completely read the dissertation (it's an EOFY work day and the dissertation is 200+ pgs...), but I couldn't help sharing due to its applicability to the contractor selection process, which is ultimately a predictive process itself. Assuming these issues/difficulties are also present in the contractor selection process, the large amounts information/data requested from contractors could not only be wasteful (in that it doesn't help the acquisition team make a better decision team) it might actually be harmful (in that it results in a worse prediction). Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Vern Edwards Posted September 2, 2016 Report Share Posted September 2, 2016 Every source selection decision is a prediction. There are two keys to making better source selection decisions: (1) choose the right evaluation factors and (2) request the right information in proposals. Ninety-nine percent of agencies haven't figured that out. If they had, the "narrative" "technical proposal," the essay contest, would have all but disappeared long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Mansfield Posted September 2, 2016 Report Share Posted September 2, 2016 Matthew, I heard the same story this morning and had the same thought. However, I couldn't find the article. Thanks for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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