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Don Mansfield

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Everything posted by Don Mansfield

  1. Don Mansfield

    Evaluation Factors

    If I hire a good enough writer, I'm fairly confident I could win a contract for courier services. "At DonCo, we have a database of individuals fully qualified couriers in the event of staff loss. Once an employee leaves, we will either utilize that database, or relocate another already employed individual to the performance location, and can fill the position within 15 days."
  2. Don Mansfield

    Problem of the Month

    Scenario: You are a DoD contracting officer and you have a requirement for brand name commercial items valued at $1 million. The acquisition is in support of a contingency operation and the purchase will be made outside the United States using simplified acquisition procedures (simplified acquisition threshold is $1.5 million). Class deviation 2018-O0013 is in effect, so "$150,000" has been replaced with "simplified acquisition threshold" at FAR 13.501(a)(2)(i).
  3. I'm going through a mid-life crisis, ok? Some guys go out and buy sports cars to feel young, I read books about math. I used to want to be an actuary. That is my road not taken.
  4. Don Mansfield

    Fee on Negotiated Changes

    This discussion reminds me of Robert Axelrod's game theory experiments.
  5. Don Mansfield

    Probability Problem #1

    FrankJon and Matthew are correct. I used FrankJon's method, but Matthew's method works, too.
  6. There were worthwhile discussions of the ability to learn. Fascinating discussion of the use of neural networks to solve different problems. However, the book is 10 years old so I suspect the technology is more advanced today. I still recommend it.
  7. I've become a believer in AI, too, after reading Supercrunchers by Ian Ayres. I would like to see the use of a nonhuman source selection authority in my lifetime.
  8. Don Mansfield

    Evaluation Factors

    I seriously doubt your submission requirements are consistent with customary commercial practice. Have you done any market research to determine how courier services are customarily bought and sold? Do other buyers in this market require the submission of "QCP/Contract manager's resume/complete package submitted/technical approach to performance" from potential sellers?
  9. Don Mansfield

    Probability Problem #1

    I want to see if Vern is going to change his answer, based on my response to him. I'll post the answer by the end of the day.
  10. Don Mansfield

    Probability Problem #1

    Oops. I meant 20%. Purely mathematical.
  11. Don Mansfield

    Probability Problem #1

    Yes. You have a 20% chance of winning your case at the COFC, and a 20% chance of winning your case at the CAFC. I'm saving conditional probabilities for a future problem.
  12. Don Mansfield

    Probability Problem #1

    Carl, Did you use math to arrive at your answer?
  13. Don Mansfield

    Problem of the Month

    No, the deviation changed (i), not (ii). Yep. Not saying you're right or wrong, but you make sense.
  14. Don Mansfield

    Problem of the Month

    You can assume that.
  15. Don Mansfield

    Fee on Negotiated Changes

    If you're negotiating with DoD, then the contracting officer probably used the weighted guidelines method to arrive at their negotiation objective. This method considers "contract type risk" (see DFARS 215.404-71-3). The greatest value is given to firm-fixed-price contracts with no financing (4-6% of estimated cost) and the lowest value is given to four different contract types, one of which is cost-plus-fixed-fee (0-1% of estimated cost). This subsection also contains the following instruction to contracting officers: Let's assume that the contracting officer would have used the "normal value" for contract type risk for a CPFF contract (0.5% of estimated cost) if negotiations took place before performance. However, because those negotiations took place after performance they are going to use 0% for contract type risk. Doing this should only lower the fee objective by 0.5%. What was the fee % you originally proposed? What is the fee % the Government countered with?
  16. Don Mansfield

    Who's responsible to request funding?

    I think that clause is for use when funds haven't been appropriated--not when funds have been appropriated but haven't been committed. FAR 32.703-2(a) states: I've worked in contracting offices that required a commitment of funds before accepting a purchase request. I've also worked in a contracting office that had to wait until award was about to be made before the finance office would commit funds. In the latter case, the finance office was chasing a metric. They were measured on "Committed funds not obligated". The goal was to keep that as low as possible.
  17. Don Mansfield

    how to structure emergency service

    Ok, now I understand why you think what you think.
  18. Don Mansfield

    Paying for Proposals

    Brush up on the Paperwork Reduction Act (implemented at 5 CFR 1320).
  19. Don Mansfield

    how to structure emergency service

    Carl, 75-80% of the time seems high to me. Suppose the same contractor had a requirements contract to support Base A and a BPA to support Base B. All other things equal, you think that the contractor would respond to 95% of Base A orders within 4 hours and only 20-25% of Base B calls within 4 hours?
  20. Don Mansfield

    how to structure emergency service

    Understood. That's all I'm asking.
  21. Don Mansfield

    how to structure emergency service

    Carl, For argument's sake, when coming up with your estimate please make the same assumptions about the requirement as Vern:
  22. Don Mansfield

    Charging with Coverage

    Corduroy, You can make some serious coin as a qui tam relator: https://www.phillipsandcohen.com/whistleblower-rewards/
  23. Don Mansfield

    how to structure emergency service

    Vern and Carl, 1. Using Carl's approach (Requirements contract), what is the probability of the contractor not showing up to respond to an emergency (the type described by the OP) within four hours of being notified? Give me your best estimate. Assume contractor is responsible. If you want to make further assumptions, you can. Just let us know what they are. 2. Using Vern's approach (BPA), what is the probability of an individual BPA holder not showing up to respond to an emergency (the type described by the OP) within four hours of being notified? Give me your best estimate. Make the same assumptions about the BPA holder and the requirement you did for #1. Everything's the same, but the instrument used (BPA instead of requirements contract.
  24. Don Mansfield

    how to structure emergency service

    Yes, but at the time you placed the call, the contractor would not be required to work and the Government would not be required to pay. An emergency would have to arise and the Government would have to call the contractor. Look, I get what you are proposing and you could probably convince a lot of folks that it's ok based on the case you found, but I'm still not convinced.
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